±5% around the central rate
Current dirham fluctuation band
In force since 9 March 2020, after a first widening from ±0.3% to ±2.5% in January 2018, per Bank Al-Maghrib.
60% EUR / 40% USD
Central rate basket weights
Bank Al-Maghrib publishes the band limits against the US dollar daily, derived from this basket.
±7.5%
Foreign banknote quotation band
Widened from ±5% at the time of the second phase of the exchange rate regime reform.
1 January 2026
IGOC 2026 entry into force
Restructured exchange regulation that strengthens hedging instruments and extends position offsetting across all permitted hedge categories.
Morocco's FX liberalization explained: the dirham's ±5% band, Office des Changes hedging allowances under IGOC 2026, and how investors should prepare for the next widening.
What changed: a wider hedging toolkit ahead of the next dirham band widening
The dirham is not yet floating. It still trades inside a band around a central rate derived from a currency basket, and the practical change for investors in 2026 is regulatory rather than monetary: the exchange-control framework has been rewritten and the permitted hedging perimeter has been broadened before any further band widening.
Bank Al-Maghrib moved the dirham's fluctuation band from ±0.3% to ±2.5% in January 2018 and then to ±5% in March 2020, as documented on the central bank's exchange rate regime reform page. In parallel, the Office des Changes published its General Instruction for Foreign Exchange Transactions (IGOC 2026), in force since 1 January 2026, which restructures the rules and strengthens hedging instruments. Recent market coverage also reports renewed pressure on the dirham, with a reported loss of about 1.5% against the dollar and 0.3% against the euro as a heavier import bill tightened hard-currency demand. Morocco's FX liberalization is therefore entering its risk-transfer phase.
- The dirham remains managed, not floating: it trades within ±5% of a central rate based on a 60% euro and 40% US dollar basket, a band in place since 9 March 2020.
- A further widening has been signalled around the 2026 horizon, but no new band has been officially announced, so it should be modelled as a scenario rather than a fact.
- IGOC 2026, effective 1 January 2026, restructures exchange regulation and extends position offsetting to all permitted hedging operations, including FX, interest rate, commodity and asset-related risk.
- Hedges remain conditional on backing: each transaction must be attached to a documented underlying commercial or capital operation presented to the bank.
- Band widening transfers FX risk from the central bank to companies, with importers, energy-intensive manufacturers and very small enterprises the most exposed to an unhedged move.
About 1.5% weaker vs USD, 0.3% vs EUR
Recent dirham move
Reported in recent market coverage as a rising import bill shifted the domestic FX market toward stronger hard-currency demand.
Approximately USD 46.6 billion (2025)
Central bank FX reserves (indicative)
Indicative estimate from publicly circulated data; verify against the latest Bank Al-Maghrib publication.
Who it affects: importers, exporters, non-resident investors and smaller operators
The next stage of Morocco's FX liberalization redistributes currency risk rather than removing it. Commentary around the governor's position is explicit on this point: widening the band mechanically transfers foreign exchange risk from the central bank to economic agents, and in an economy that imports most of its energy, raw materials and equipment, greater volatility can compress corporate margins and feed into consumer prices, as discussed in reporting on Bank Al-Maghrib's cautious sequencing.
Importers and energy-intensive manufacturers are the first-order exposure. Where input costs are dollar-denominated and revenues are in dirhams, an unhedged widening of the band translates directly into gross margin variance. Export-oriented manufacturing and services sit on the opposite side: a weaker dirham supports price competitiveness, but receivable timing and contractual currency clauses determine whether that benefit is actually captured.
Non-resident investors are specifically addressed by the regulator. Circular No. 2/2025, published on 25 February 2025 and prepared in consultation with Bank Al-Maghrib and the Moroccan Association of Trading Rooms, covers hedging against foreign exchange risk on capital transactions carried out by non-residents, with the stated aim of stimulating the capital market and encouraging foreign investment.
Very small enterprises are the acknowledged weak link. Large corporates and exporting SMEs generally hold the financial engineering capacity to hedge, while smaller operators frequently do not, which is why dissemination of hedging instruments is treated as a precondition for further flexibility.
By ticket size, the asymmetry is practical: large project finance structures with foreign-currency debt can price forwards and swaps efficiently, while smaller transactions often find hedging costs material relative to margin. Investors sizing Moroccan exposure may want to test this directly through our investment simulator.
Detailed provisions: how the exchange regulation and hedging perimeter now work
Three layers of regulation matter here: the band mechanics set by the central bank, the hedging circulars issued by the Office des Changes, and the consolidated instruction that codifies day-to-day exchange operations.
Band mechanics. Bank Al-Maghrib sets and publishes daily the limit rates of the dirham's band against the US dollar, based on a central rate deviated by 5% on either side, with the basket weighted 60% euro and 40% US dollar; the band for foreign banknotes is set at ±7.5% of the central rate, as set out in the central bank's calculation methodology. The band is updated before each currency auction session and when international rates move significantly.
| Phase | Effective | Band around central rate | Accompanying measure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quasi-peg | Until January 2018 | ±0.3% | Dirham tracking the basket |
| Phase 1 | 15 January 2018 | ±2.5% | "Market maker" status for banks; hedging Circular 1/2018 |
| Phase 2 | 9 March 2020 | ±5% | Banknote quotation band widened to ±7.5% |
| Next phase | Signalled around 2026, not yet announced | Wider than ±5% (indicative) | Pilot work on inflation targeting |
Hedging allowances. Following the January 2018 reform, the Office des Changes issued Circular No. 1/2018 on hedging operations, which diversified and eased hedging and authorised cover against currency risk, interest rate risk, commodity price fluctuation risk, and risks related to any asset or debt. The central condition is backing: hedges must be attached to an underlying commercial or capital transaction, evidenced to the bank by documentation binding the Moroccan operator and its foreign counterparty.
IGOC 2026. The consolidated instruction entered into force on 1 January 2026 as part of the Office des Changes' 2025-2029 strategic vision. According to the official release, it extends the possibility of offsetting positions to all hedging operations against exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, commodity price fluctuations and risks inherent to any asset. The same release allows resident foreigners, absent proof of foreign-currency financing, to transfer investment income up to MAD 2,000,000 per year (roughly EUR 185,000 or USD 213,000 at indicative mid-2026 rates) for investments held more than ten years, and improves the regime for service imports and export financing. One consultancy reading of the text describes a restructuring into six chapters and 256 articles; that structural detail comes from a single secondary source and should be verified against the instruction itself.
Existing operator incentives. The instruction also preserves the categorised-operator regime. Under the published instruction text, categorised operators have benefited from advance settlement of goods imports up to 100% of transaction value and crediting of foreign-currency or convertible-dirham accounts up to 85% of export proceeds. Investors should confirm current thresholds with their bank or the Office des Changes, since these parameters are periodically revised.
Action steps for investors before the next band widening
Treat the next widening as a budgeted scenario, not an event risk. The following sequence reflects what the current regulation already permits.
- Map net FX exposure by currency, tenor and contract, separating translation from cash-flow risk.
- Document the underlying commercial or capital transaction, since backing is the gating condition for any hedge.
- Confirm whether the entity qualifies for categorised-operator facilities.
- Open or review forward and option lines with market-maker banks.
- Re-read FX, indexation and price-revision clauses in supply and offtake contracts.
Run the arithmetic before the band moves. The table below is illustrative arithmetic only, anchored on a reference level of roughly 9.38 MAD per USD observed in mid-2026, not a forecast.
| Scenario (illustrative) | USD/MAD | Effect on a USD 10m annual import bill |
|---|---|---|
| Dirham 5% stronger | 8.91 | MAD 89.1m |
| Reference | 9.38 | MAD 93.8m |
| Dirham 5% weaker | 9.85 | MAD 98.5m |
| Dirham 10% weaker | 10.32 | MAD 103.2m |
A ten percent adverse move on that profile adds roughly MAD 9.4m of cost, which is the order of magnitude that should drive hedge-ratio policy rather than sentiment about the dirham. For leveraged structures, the same stress should be applied to debt service coverage and to any covenant expressed in dirhams.
Non-resident sponsors should separately confirm the documentation path for hedging capital transactions and for income repatriation, ideally at term-sheet stage rather than at exit. Our teams support this work through financial advisory and structuring and risk management and compliance, with sector context from market research and intelligence. Where exposure is concentrated, document the hedging policy at board level so that treasury decisions are auditable once volatility increases.
Conclusion: price the regime, not the rumour
Morocco's FX liberalization has been deliberately gradual: two band widenings in eight years, a market-maker framework to deepen interbank liquidity, and a hedging perimeter that has been broadened in step with each phase. Commentary suggests a further move has been prepared for the 2026 horizon, alongside pilot work on inflation targeting, but no new band has been announced and investors should not model one as confirmed. What is confirmed is that the toolkit to manage the transition is already available under IGOC 2026 and the hedging circulars.
The practical conclusion for capital allocators is narrow and actionable: quantify dirham exposure now, secure hedging lines and documentation while conditions are calm, and treat the next band widening as a modelled scenario. To stress-test a specific project or portfolio against a wider dirham band, contact our research desk or review our services overview. This note is informational and does not constitute financial advice.
Les informations fournies par Smart.by sur le site www.smartbyllc.com sont fournies à titre informatif uniquement et ne constituent pas un conseil financier. Veuillez nous contacter pour en savoir plus.
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