Several observations emerge from this comparison. First, Casablanca's prime office yields sit in the middle of the three markets in absolute terms, but the positive spread over Morocco's policy rate is striking. In both Cairo and Istanbul, the central bank's benchmark rate exceeds headline property yields, meaning that on a purely nominal, local-currency basis, a risk-free deposit can outperform a leveraged office investment. This dynamic discourages domestic leveraged buyers in Egypt and Turkey and tilts the investor base toward cash-rich or hard-currency-funded players.

Second, vacancy rates tell a nuanced story. Istanbul's elevated vacancy, estimated between 15% and 20% in the broader CBD and new-build corridors, reflects a significant pipeline of speculative Grade A supply delivered over the past three years, combined with corporate tenants downsizing amid Turkey's prolonged inflationary cycle. Cairo's vacancy appears tighter, but this partly reflects limited new institutional-grade supply rather than robust demand; much of the city's office stock is aging and does not meet multinational occupier standards. Casablanca occupies a middle ground: the Casa Finance City district and the Anfa corridor have added modern supply, pushing vacancy into the low-to-mid teens, yet absorption has been supported by nearshoring demand from European corporates and the expansion of Morocco's financial-services and automotive ecosystems.

Third, rent trajectories diverge sharply in real terms. Istanbul's nominal rents have risen in Turkish lira, but when converted to hard currency, effective rents have been flat or declining for international tenants. Cairo faces a similar dynamic post the Egyptian pound adjustments of 2023 and 2024. Casablanca's rents, denominated in a relatively stable dirham, offer more predictable hard-currency cash flows, which is a decisive factor for cross-border institutional investors benchmarking returns in EUR or USD.

Three structural forces explain the widening gap in risk-adjusted office performance across these markets.

Monetary policy divergence. Morocco's Bank Al-Maghrib has maintained a comparatively accommodative stance, with its policy rate at approximately 2.50% as of early 2025, reflecting contained inflation and a stable currency peg. Egypt's Central Bank and Turkey's CBRT, by contrast, have been forced into aggressive tightening cycles to defend their currencies and combat double-digit inflation. The resulting cost of local debt makes leveraged real estate transactions in Cairo and Istanbul far more expensive, compressing net yields for domestic borrowers and reducing transaction volumes.

Supply pipeline composition. Casablanca's office pipeline is increasingly policy-driven, anchored by the Casa Finance City free zone and government-backed urban renewal projects. This creates a degree of supply discipline that purely market-driven pipelines in Istanbul lack. In Cairo, the New Administrative Capital is absorbing a significant share of government-related demand, which could hollow out traditional CBD locations over the medium term, a structural risk that does not have a direct parallel in Casablanca or Istanbul.

Nearshoring and FDI positioning. Morocco's geographic proximity to Europe, its network of free-trade agreements, and its positioning as a francophone gateway to West Africa have attracted a growing share of European nearshoring mandates. This demand driver is relatively insensitive to local interest-rate cycles and provides a hard-currency revenue base for landlords. Turkey benefits from a similar nearshoring narrative, but geopolitical risk and currency instability have tempered momentum. Egypt's FDI story is more concentrated in energy and logistics than in office-intensive sectors.

For international investors evaluating office exposure across these three markets, the data points toward several actionable conclusions.

Casablanca offers the most favorable risk-adjusted entry point. The combination of a positive yield spread over the risk-free rate, a stable currency, and a growing tenant base driven by nearshoring makes Casablanca's prime office segment attractive on a hold-to-income basis. Investors seeking core-plus or value-add strategies should focus on the Anfa Place and Casa Finance City corridors, where institutional-grade assets are available and tenant covenants are strengthening. The dirham's managed peg reduces, though does not eliminate, currency risk for EUR- or USD-denominated funds.

Cairo is a contrarian play requiring conviction on EGP stabilization. Headline yields above 8.5% look compelling, but they must be weighed against the risk of further pound depreciation and the structural shift of government tenants toward the New Administrative Capital. Investors with a five-year-plus horizon and the ability to hedge or tolerate currency risk may find selective opportunities in Grade A assets near Cairo's commercial hubs, but underwriting should stress-test for continued EGP weakness.

Istanbul demands caution despite nominal yield compression. Sub-7% gross yields in a market with 40%+ policy rates and persistent lira depreciation create a challenging return profile for hard-currency investors. The market may become more attractive if Turkey's monetary tightening succeeds in anchoring inflation expectations and stabilizing the lira, but that remains a conditional scenario rather than a base case.

Across all three markets, investors should pay close attention to lease structures. Casablanca leases are typically denominated in MAD with periodic indexation clauses, offering moderate inflation protection. Cairo leases increasingly include USD-linked escalation clauses for multinational tenants, which can partially offset currency risk. Istanbul leases vary widely, with some indexed to CPI and others to hard-currency benchmarks, creating significant variance in effective returns depending on contract terms.

For investors seeking to structure an entry into the Moroccan office market or benchmark a specific opportunity, Smart.by's Investment Strategy & Planning team can provide tailored scenario analysis and deal structuring support.