The Kingdom of Morocco's agriculture sector is facing dual pressures and opportunities today, with wildfire risks threatening short-term output even as potato exports surge to a five-year high, a testament to the nation's resilient agro-industrial backbone. Meanwhile, AI-powered customs enforcement signals a push for trade transparency, creating both compliance challenges and long-term efficiency gains for investors.

Agriculture & Mining

The wildfire risk bulletin from Morocco’s ANEF (August 17–20) highlights operational vulnerabilities in northern agricultural provinces, particularly for forestry and seasonal crops (Hespress English). Paradoxically, the sector shows remarkable resilience: potato exports surged 470% year-on-year to 27,800 tons from January–July 2025, reclaiming EU and West African markets after phytosanitary improvements (Hespress English). Water diplomacy initiatives, praised in recent reports, are mitigating climate risks through infrastructure like the 140-dam network, though regional disparities in irrigation access persist, creating investment niches in precision agriculture technologies.

Manufacturing & Industry

Moroccan customs’ deployment of AI to probe front companies signals tightening trade governance, with ripple effects for manufacturers reliant on imported raw materials (Hespress English). While this may increase short-term compliance costs, it enhances the business environment for exporters of Moroccan-made goods by leveling the playing field. The focus on transparency aligns with EU supply chain regulations, critical as Morocco positions itself as a nearshoring hub amid global trade realignments.

Market Outlook

The wildfire risks underscore the urgency of climate adaptation investments in Morocco’s agricultural heartlands, where public-private partnerships in drip irrigation and processing facilities could unlock productivity gains. The potato export rebound validates Morocco’s agro-industrial potential, but diversification into higher-value crops remains key to mitigating commodity volatility.

In manufacturing, AI-driven customs reforms reinforce Morocco’s structural advantages for export-oriented production, particularly in automotive and aerospace, sectors benefiting from the EU’s "friend-shoring" push. However, energy costs remain a watchpoint despite renewable energy progress.

The water management report reveals untapped opportunities in decentralized water infrastructure, with desalination and wastewater treatment projects likely to gain priority in arid regions. Investors should monitor Morocco’s Green Generation Strategy 2020-2030 for upcoming PPPs in this space.